ANKARA: Russian-backed Assad regime forces are advancing in Syria’s opposition-held province of Idlib. Dozens of civilians have been killed in the offensive, despite calls from the international community for de-escalation.
Since the beginning of December, air raids in Idlib have resulted in the forced migration of some 80,000 people toward the Turkish border, according to the UN.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan recently downgraded that number to about 50,000 expected to cross, but added the country was already hosting 3.7 million Syrian refugees.
In September 2018, Ankara and the Kremlin had agreed to make Idlib a de-escalation zone. Currently, Turkey has 12 military observation posts in Idlib, with the post in Surman village categorized as high risk as a result of the latest clashes.
In August, regime forces also surrounded a Turkish post in the town of Morek in southern Idlib, but Ankara refused to abandon it.
“Regime forces are advancing in Idlib to encircle the observation point in Surman. There are signs that the area may fall under the regime’s control, as happened before to the post in Morek,” Erol Bural, a former military officer and a terrorism expert at the 21st Century Turkey Institute, said.
Some experts don’t expect Turkey to break precedent and evacuate Surman, either. But one thing is clear: The observation posts have become more and more dysfunctional in a conflict zone where bombardments have persisted despite the cease-fire.
Bill Park, a visiting research fellow at King’s College, London, said Turkey’s stance in Idlib and elsewhere in Syria had been a high risk one from the beginning.
“Turkish forces have intruded onto the territory of a sovereign state, and backed groups opposed to the Syrian regime. Damascus is bound to want to extend its own control there,” he told Arab News.
“Turkey has clearly been unable or unwilling to effectively control its proxy forces, who in any case have done little to stabilize the situation. Russian and Syrian frustration with Turkey’s proxies in Idlib has been evident for some time. It is possible too that Ankara’s forces will sooner or later clash with Russian and regime forces in Afrin and northeast Syria as well.”
Park believes Ankara should understand the limits of its power and recognize that Moscow and Damascus will determine the outcome in Syria, and that it should seek stability in Syria, rather than undermine it.
An intensified assault on the urban center of Idlib is expected to substantially increase the number of refugees fleeing to Turkey.
UN observers announced at least 18,000 refugees had reached the border in just 24 hours after sustained bombings killed even more people, but camps along it were already at full capacity.
“Turkey is now facing an increased refugee crisis — as is Iraq and Syria itself — in the form of internally displaced people as a consequence of Turkey’s actions in northeastern Syria,” Park said.
Idlib is mostly under the control of a former Al-Qaeda affiliate, Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, while the Assad regime is committed to taking back control of it.
Halid Abdurrahman, a researcher and analyst on the Middle East and North Africa, said the presence of Turkish observation posts in Idlib to monitor de-escalation in the region was now effectively pointless given that the regime was able to surround and bypass them in its assault.
In late June, one Turkish soldier was killed and three others were wounded following shelling of their observation post in Idlib region, allegedly by the regime.
The timing of the latest escalation in Idlib is also telling, just ahead of the summit between Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin, scheduled for Jan. 8, 2020.
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